Growth Scenarios (12 Months)
Bear Case
—
ARR: —
Growth: 3%/mo
Base Case
—
ARR: —
Growth: 10%/mo
Bull Case
—
ARR: —
Growth: 20%/mo
MRR Sensitivity — Growth Rate vs Churn Rate
12-month projected MRR by growth and churn combination
24-Month Revenue Projection
Month-by-Month Projection
| Month | MRR | ARR | Growth ($) | Churn ($) | Net New MRR |
|---|
How to Use This Calculator
1
Enter Subscription Data
Input your active subscribers by plan tier with their monthly or annual pricing.
2
Account for Changes
Add new MRR, churned MRR, expansion MRR (upgrades), and contraction MRR (downgrades) for the period.
3
Track Growth
See your total MRR, ARR, net new MRR, growth rate, and MRR breakdown by component.
Key Terms
- MRR
- Monthly Recurring Revenue — predictable monthly income from active subscriptions.
- ARR
- Annual Recurring Revenue — MRR × 12, used for annual planning and valuation.
- Net New MRR
- The net change in MRR including new, expansion, contraction, and churned components.
- Expansion MRR
- Additional revenue from existing customers via upgrades, add-ons, or seat increases.
- Contraction MRR
- Revenue lost from existing customers who downgrade plans or reduce seats.
Real-World Examples
Example 1
Early-Stage SaaS
50 Basic ($29/mo) + 20 Pro ($79/mo) + 5 Enterprise ($299/mo)
MRR: $4,525. ARR: $54,300. With $800 new + $200 expansion − $350 churn = $650 net new MRR.
Example 2
Growth SaaS
800 subscribers, avg $120/mo. New: $12,000, Expansion: $5,000, Churn: $6,500, Contraction: $1,200
MRR: $96,000. Net new: $9,300 (9.7% MoM growth). ARR: $1,152,000.
MRR Growth Rate Benchmarks
| ARR Range | Good MoM Growth | Great MoM Growth | Top Decile |
|---|
| $0-$1M | 10-15% | 15-25% | > 25% |
| $1M-$5M | 8-12% | 12-18% | > 18% |
| $5M-$20M | 5-8% | 8-12% | > 12% |
| $20M-$50M | 3-5% | 5-8% | > 8% |
| $50M+ | 2-4% | 4-6% | > 6% |
MRR: The Heartbeat of SaaS
Why MRR Matters More Than Revenue
MRR isolates the predictable, recurring portion of your business. One-time fees, setup charges, and professional services revenue should be tracked separately because they do not compound. Investors value MRR because it represents the baseline revenue the business will generate even with zero new sales. A $100K MRR business is typically valued at 8-15× ARR ($9.6M-$18M).
The MRR Waterfall
Break MRR into five components each month: beginning MRR, plus new MRR and expansion MRR, minus contraction MRR and churned MRR, equals ending MRR. The healthiest SaaS companies see expansion MRR exceed churned MRR (negative net revenue churn), meaning the business grows even without acquiring a single new customer.