Expected goals turns shot quality into a probability. Start with a position on the pitch, see which factors change the estimate, and keep a simple record of one team’s chances.

A visual way to describe location

Distance and angle are related. The same central position sees a narrower goal from farther away. A shot near the byline can be close to goal centre while seeing very little of the target. The pitch calculates both quantities from the position you choose, so you do not have to guess degrees.

For existing shared links or externally supplied values, exact entry accepts distance and angle directly. Those two numbers are not drawn as a unique position: the calculator does not invent which side the shot came from. The sensitivity view identifies whether it moves the position or holds a manually entered angle fixed.

What this model can and cannot tell you

The coefficients are transparent illustrative assumptions. They have not been fitted to or validated against a shot dataset. They ignore goalkeeper position, assist type, ball height, and detailed defender locations. An open-goal finish and a shot facing a well-positioned goalkeeper can therefore receive the same estimate here. The model also saturates the angle contribution above 90°, and cannot represent every high-probability chance accurately.

Use it to explore how the assumed factors affect the number, not to claim professional-grade xG or certain match outcomes. Hudl Statsbomb explains how data-based xG models differ, including its 0.78 penalty value compared with the 0.76 assumption used here.

Keep a useful, honest match log

Record every attempt once. A missed chance still contributes its xG; the outcome does not change its pre-shot estimate. Add the values to get total team xG, and divide by shot count for average chance quality. A total above one is normal.

These totals inherit the model’s limitations. They do not prove how many goals a team deserved or guarantee its next result. The log stays on this browser and device; shared URLs contain only the current shot. Export a CSV before switching devices or clearing browser data. Reset only changes the current shot; Clear match has a separate undo action.